Starbench Analysis
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Lunar Index

The Starbench Lunar Index tracks the buildout of the United States commercially-procured base on the Moon before 2030, and what it means for the primes and challengers building the hardware. Landing dates come from a correlated slip Monte Carlo fit to NASA OIG program history, hindcast against Artemis I and II, and benchmarked against China's Chang'e cadence.

What's inside

  • Landing dates: Artemis IV/V posteriors, with a prior-sensitivity band on the headline pre-2030 probability
  • Provider scorecard: a hierarchical-Bayes success posterior over every lunar-lander provider and mission since 2019
  • Contract downselects: scenario NPV decision trees for LTV, EVA suits, CLPS 2.0, FSP, and more, with bidder-specific cost bands drawn from EDGAR filings
  • Project Ignition: the $20B post-Gateway reallocation, weighted by actual appropriations, with per-prime P&L bands
  • China benchmark: Chang'e cadence and capability tracked alongside every US posterior

What subscribers receive

  • Quarterly updates, plus milestone-driven revisions to every posterior
  • The contract NPV trees and per-prime P&L bands
  • Catalyst tracking on program decisions, test flights, and budget actions